The news this week, whether the financial markets, the Syrian government’s next steps, the Greece/Spain/Italy saga, the riots in London, or the Horn of Africa, all offer one common theme: highly complex uncertainty. This blog is a short plea for non-profit organisations and anyone working with them from governments to individual and institutional funders to the beneficiaries of their services: don’t lose track of the need to manage uncertainty in all areas of the organization.

A few specific thoughts include:

  • Short-, medium-, and long-term. The current multi-dimensional uncertainty is no longer a temporary setback from a natural disaster or an isolatable jolt to the financial markets or an unstable political system. Uncertainty needs to be managed simultaneously in all time frames: short-, medium-, and long-term.
  • Global. Uncertainty in one geographic area or with one type of issue will likely have a global impact. Manage uncertainty with the potential global impact in mind in both directions.
  • Viral and spiral contagion. We are seeing added danger from the speed with which certain risks spiral out of control. Uncertainty is contagious.  Toxic financial instruments affected everything from home mortgages to insurance companies and pension plans to charitable giving. Arab Spring spread from country to country to the point where now even Israelis in a democratic society find inspiration for their own different types of protests in this series of events. The spread of the nuclear fallout from the Japanese tsunami seems immeasurable in duration and potential danger. Technology and social media catalyses uncertainty virally with unpredictable reach and consequences. In brief, we can no longer expect to estimate the extent and speed of the impact of the uncertainty.
  • Accountability, governance, transparency, and ethics. If ever there were a time to retrench and solidify accountability, governance, transparency, and ethics best practices, it is in the face of uncertainty. These areas are not uncertain. You control them. Redouble your efforts, and be particularly self-critical in these areas. Staying first in class in these areas whatever storms you may weather will help protect and might even reinforce your reputation might despite operational challenges or financial struggles.
  • Risk assessment and management. The entire process and results of risk assessment and management should be viewed through the uncertainty lens. Be more cautious, inclusive, and broad minded in considering where your risks lie. Incentivize creativity at all levels of the organization for mitigating risks. If you don’t have a risk assessment process in place, now is the time to start this exercise. It needn’t be burdensome, and it can be an iterative process. Everyone in the organization should be aware of the panoply of risks and the strategies and processes for managing them. In particular, departments should be prepared in advance for such matters as employee safety, communication with the media, data retrieval, impact on donor funding, and restarting after a business interruption.
  • Sensitize constituents. Sensitize constituents (employees, volunteers, beneficiaries of services, donors, relevant government representatives, and the public) on the areas of uncertainty the most pertinent to your organization and to them. Be specific about both areas that are of concern and issues that are not of concern. Don’t dramatize, but be transparent. Solicit their input in addressing this challenging environment.

Copyright 2011 Susan Liautaud. All rights reserved